(11-27-2012, 06:33 AM)Palm Wrote: Pet, your analysis on this process is again greatly appreceiated. A little off-topic is something I'd ask that you comment on to help dispel a nasty rumor I've heard is being circulated regarding the Ant reservoir. Evidently it is being said that there is suspicion that Ant is not a continuous reservoir and Ant 3 is being drilled to more or less satisfy bidders that they will indeed hit substantial gas. The doubters are saying that if it's not a continuous reservoir, Ant 3 could instead hit water and really throw a wrench into the works. This is supposedly a reason that pps is being whacked in addition to the PNG government approving the project on a 50/50 basis and a contingent suspension of project cancellation etc etc. What in your opinion is the chance that Ant 3 will give this negative result (non-continuous reservoir and/or water)? Seems like another short-stretch of the imagination. Thanks in advance.
Palm- IOC has done two or three rounds of seismic at Elk/Antelope and each time the new information has just improved the picture of what they thought they had. The seismic data has been evaluated by at least IOC's geophysicists and GLJ's geophysicists and they have both arrived at more or less the same picture. We have found the gas/water contact to be at the same level in both Antelope-1 and Antelope-2 and only a slight variation in the Elk block.
Since we have already stepped out 2.2 miles from Antelope-1, drilled Antelope-2 and found the zone to be as expected, and since we are now drilling between Antelope-1 and Antelope-2 it is my opinion that there is a zero chance of a 2400+ foot zone becoming discontinuous within 0.6 miles (1 km) of Antelope-1.
As mentioned above it appears that they have already found the top of the reservoir higher than anticipated. We await confirmation. If they have found the top of the reservoir they have had plenty of time to have set the 9 5/8" casing. Looks like that would be a good time for a drilling update but they may wish to drill ahead and get a gas kick before reporting.
The GLJ maps indicate that we should find both the high porosity limestone, the dolomite streak and the lower porosity reef rock at the Antelope-3 location.