06-18-2012, 10:15 AM
In his defense though, oxford energy is a respectable source and I don't think they will leave all their nuclear power decommissioned forever (or if they did, that would be capital destruction on a rather epic scale). So I do think that the present demand for LNG from Japan is inflated and it remains to be seen for how long that continues.
I never really counted on Japan as being the growth factor in LNG, the declining population might just be balanced by a slow shift towards LNG for environmental and price reasons, but Asia's growth lies mostly outside Japan.
On the other hand, there are contracts expiring and other resources drying up.
Other reports see an imbalance second half this decade, and there are also geopolitical factors weighing (ALL of Qatar's gas has to pass Hormuz, for instance, how about that).
I'm really not concerned anyway as IOC's gas should be cheaper than most other suppliers (bar Qatar), so they'll be able to sell in almost any market. So the point about Japan isn't terribly important, imo.
I never really counted on Japan as being the growth factor in LNG, the declining population might just be balanced by a slow shift towards LNG for environmental and price reasons, but Asia's growth lies mostly outside Japan.
On the other hand, there are contracts expiring and other resources drying up.
Other reports see an imbalance second half this decade, and there are also geopolitical factors weighing (ALL of Qatar's gas has to pass Hormuz, for instance, how about that).
I'm really not concerned anyway as IOC's gas should be cheaper than most other suppliers (bar Qatar), so they'll be able to sell in almost any market. So the point about Japan isn't terribly important, imo.