02-22-2013, 10:36 AM
Petro-I suume you are using IOC 58% ownership for your estimates.
At $7 Billion for IOC's 58% equals $12.086 Billion for the entire E/A,Thats $1.20 per mcf
At $10 Billion for IOC's 58% equals $17.241 Billion for the entire E/A,Thats $1.72 per mcf
Remember Mitsui thought IOC's E/A was in aggregate worth $22.000 Billion several years ago.That was
$2.20 per mcf. Based on the GLJ estimate at that time. But the GLJ estimate has been raised last year and
appears it will be raised again this year. That would adjust the numbers lower which I think is to low for
what really happens.
Doublebagger thinks this first deal will be quite a bit lower than the additional blended sell down prices over
time.The first deal is the hardest deal.
I was told by Sal I several times IOC wanted a sell down with IOC receiving payment per mcf based on the
actual production of liquids and NG. Is that where the bids are today.??
I think Doublebagger has the right approach. We are going to have at least 3 trains and so focusing on the
first deal and proceeds is incorrect. I think IOC and the IBers who will pick up IOC coverage again post deal
will explain what Doublebagger talks about a blended mcf price much higher than the first deal price. And
show a chart similar to what Doublebagger uses.
This mcf price whatever it is ignores Triceratops and other 40 prospects which will revaluated price wise
upwards with an LNG project finalyzed.
If Doublebagger is right and IOC realizes 30 T's then holding onto your shares for years might be the way to
go. But alas will any Super Major let IOC stay independent that long?????
The best monetization price could be achieved with an Exxon deal to augment their production in Port
Moresby. Will that be the chosen deal???
At $7 Billion for IOC's 58% equals $12.086 Billion for the entire E/A,Thats $1.20 per mcf
At $10 Billion for IOC's 58% equals $17.241 Billion for the entire E/A,Thats $1.72 per mcf
Remember Mitsui thought IOC's E/A was in aggregate worth $22.000 Billion several years ago.That was
$2.20 per mcf. Based on the GLJ estimate at that time. But the GLJ estimate has been raised last year and
appears it will be raised again this year. That would adjust the numbers lower which I think is to low for
what really happens.
Doublebagger thinks this first deal will be quite a bit lower than the additional blended sell down prices over
time.The first deal is the hardest deal.
I was told by Sal I several times IOC wanted a sell down with IOC receiving payment per mcf based on the
actual production of liquids and NG. Is that where the bids are today.??
I think Doublebagger has the right approach. We are going to have at least 3 trains and so focusing on the
first deal and proceeds is incorrect. I think IOC and the IBers who will pick up IOC coverage again post deal
will explain what Doublebagger talks about a blended mcf price much higher than the first deal price. And
show a chart similar to what Doublebagger uses.
This mcf price whatever it is ignores Triceratops and other 40 prospects which will revaluated price wise
upwards with an LNG project finalyzed.
If Doublebagger is right and IOC realizes 30 T's then holding onto your shares for years might be the way to
go. But alas will any Super Major let IOC stay independent that long?????
The best monetization price could be achieved with an Exxon deal to augment their production in Port
Moresby. Will that be the chosen deal???