'Tree' pid='18231' datel Wrote:TOT it is beyond a reasonable doubt - barring a buy-out by an NOC.
Here's why:
IOC will not work with Shell.
XOM will not build new plant in Gulf, only wants feed-stock and their plan whould be to pipeline all gas to PNG LNG and add multiple trains there - Kavo will say no way Jose!
CVX may come in as an investor as their hands are full with Aussie projects.
That leaves TOT.
TOT/OSH leases surround IOC's leases and TOT is going to have an LNG project in PNG - if they can find the gas. Best time for new LNG supply is now.
TOT needs 4 Ts gas now, they will buy 4Ts from Idry gas from IOC for $2.8/Mcf and they will build Gulf LNG as they see fit, Phase I. They will also Operate IOC's EWC scheme up to 8 MTPA as we come in as 'phase II & III' JKM will be our only partner/OTer. Our phases could be running prior to Phase I. IOC will also sell 4T's dry gas to XOM for their expansion @ $3/M.
TOT needs those 4 T's for a 4Mtpa plant for 20 yrs. Their plan will be to feed it with future success in their own leases. TOT at this point is like XOM, have a plant, have expansion plans need feedstock. IOC will drill away with PRE and will have 4-6 Ts in Tri and who knows how many more nearby.
If TOT or XOM cannot competitively feed their own plants they will be fed by IOC's fields.
IOC wil have 8 Mtpa plant and feed another 8 - 12 Mtpa production within 4 yrs.
Use or Flushski.
All info available on philstar.com
Of course, all bets off barring takeover attempts.
Tree, that sounds like the mother lode for IOC.... wowser!