[quote='Getitrt2' pid='18676' dateline='1363130012'] I don't think Pavel is trying to "guess" or predict what price IOC will get in the sell down. He is just using those $1.00 and $1.20 figures as a conservative base to compare IOC's valuation to until we get more information. Note his comment: "we think the validation provided by the partnership announcement should meaningfully reset valuation." [/qu
Exactly. So "the street" will use numbers/metrics that make their case and are hopefully beatable, creating the upside surprise. It's also important to know where the buy side is at. In some stocks, you can find out informally what the buy side is thinking. For IOC, Pavel is the street. The buy side is so concentrated though you can't know where buy side expectations are. No one here is in this for a move to $100. My guess is buy side estimates of a deal price are substantially higher. When stocks beat street numbers, but sell off or don't appreciate as much as you think that is because the buy side was even higher. I think $1.20 mcf would be disappointing to the big holders and that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone here. That said, there are many other vaiables other tham $ per mcf but that will be a headline # that many will look to first.. IMO, a $2+ per mcf print, all else being equal, sends the stock much higher and $3+ crushes the shorts. The short killer is a takeout or a much higher than expected $ per mcf. They will not wait around to sift through the details at that point.