'admin' pid='18690' dateline='<a href="tel:1363144 Wrote:Sam, as much as I agree with this, I think it's only part of the story. For me it's more a question of a deal removing risk and uncertainty from the project, setting the clock ticking towards monetization, and allowing InterOil to create more upside by an acceleration in exploration and appraisal. Even a disappointing deal, price wise, would achieve that, and for the life of me, I can't really see all that much downside from here (unless the deal is at 50 cents or so or has so many contingencies that a lot of uncertainty remains). Say we get $1/mcf with a fairly conclusive deal. Given the opportunities at Triceratops, with liquids, with the rest of their licenses, with the project largely derisked, with farm-out deals, would anyone start a short position in InterOil? I don't really think so. The shorts think that "the geology is suspect and management is suspect" They believe InterOil isn't able to get any deal. Almost any deal destroys that thesis (if it hasn't already).
I completely agree Admin and any deal derisks the story. One of my biggest concerns and expressed to management is the concentrated institutional ownership. It's a great thing, but if one of them is disappointed, their exit could be problematic and also reduce the potential for a wider audience. I dont predict that and in fact think we get a very good deal, but it is a risk in the event of what might appear to be a poor deal based on headlines only. The institutional holders will not wait forever and they are all in, but that changes with a poor deal.. Again, I don't foresee that but when you think about real risks for the PPS, I worry about that vs nationalization, fraud, dry hole blowbacks(really?) and all the other BS we have read about. I believe the company when they say the bidders were pre-approved, bids are in hand and the BoD is deciding. I have voted for XOM primarily based on the KISS philosophy and because it's theirs if they want it bad enough. I don't think they wait for photo ops, press releases or oion expirations. It's done when it's done ad that should be soon IMO. Some companies get perpetual discounts even if not deseved. We want want IOC to get this done finally ( long since 06) but also right.