'CesiumFormate' pid='19771' datel Wrote:JFT, I have a great deal of respect for all of your input. If I look at your track record over the past six months it has been impeccable. However, this whole argument/rumor that Shell would consider a takeover if they are not the winning bidder does not make sense based on the rest of what we appear to be hearing. First of all, it appears that Shell and Petromin have been all but kicked to the curb. If this is true that Shell has been pushed out, they would never be an approved bidder, and they would have nothing to gain by taking over Interoil. Why? Interoil's development agreement expires at the end of June unless extended by the government. If Interoil is bought out before the development agreement is completed, then all PNG has to do is to let the application expire and Shell would have nothing except Triceratops and the unexplored leases. They will need to find a constructive way to move forward in working with the government. The PNG government can take Elk/Antelope after the development agreement expires, and leave Shell to negotiate the rest with the PNG government. At even $125 per share this would cost Shell about $6 billion. There is no reason it would make any sense for them to put that much money at risk with a government that no longer wants to deal with them. Also, it is not uncommon in partnership agreements of this type, or a Letter of Intent to Parter, to put in a safety in case of change of control that would be very expensive if IOC was bought out before a deal was completed. If I were IOC, the best poison pill would be a very large cash payment due to the partners if IOC is bought out in a hostile basis. Second, the only way I see Shell getting in is once everyone is legally committed - PNG and Partners. Once that happens then Shell is in a much less risky position to buy IOC, and I will guarantee you that $125 per share will not touch it! MHO is that since the impact survey is complete, that we get the big bang with an announcement. I think we get a partner, sell down, and FID all in one. An being consistent with my post over six months ago, I think we get early cash flow connecting to the Exxon Tee. I have nothing to base this on except pure strategy and the way I would structure the deal if IOC and O'Neill are in-sync, which it appears they are.
Hey CF,
Couple of things to consider.
1) 2009 PA will not expire or be used as a hammer by PNG to prevent conclusion to SD/edvelopment or sell-out process.
2) If Shell is a bidder, they most likely are aligned with CNOOC or Sinopec. Shell is CH preferred Operator and these CH Co's have been in bids fr E/A stakes for almost 4 yrs. They are in the mix here somewhere.
3) RDS had signed CA's.
Apr. 2012 Phil:
"In regards to Shell or other LNG partners, they are all under confidentiality agreements and we cannot talk about the discussions," Mulacek said."
And don't forget what RDS CFO/CEO said either regarding negotiations:
http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/showth...p?tid=1315
This is likely not real open-ended at this point. JAPEX/MOU is the big deal of 2013.