A little speculative, this post, but we've heard quite some rumors lately that, if true, could greatly impact the dynamics here. Some of these rumors:
- Some element(s) in Petromin had unauthorized contacts with bidding parties and others
- Heads are roling and it looks like some restructuring is on the table
- Shell is not happy and has signed the CA, possibly entering the fray
While these not officially confirmed as of yet (and some are unlikely to be 'officia'lly' confirmed), what if there is truth in them? It's likely the shorts will be rather uncomfortable with the present situation:
- 14M shares short, despite a steep rise lately, the share price is slowly gowing up, not down
- Difficult to find shares to short and at high cost
- 'Deep throat' in Petromin might have been exposed and is no more. If this is true, this would be especially uncomforatable for the shorts. Considering the large amount of shorting and the increase in the numbers, it certainly looks like they felt someone had their backs. If that's no longer the case then it will be interesting to see how they play that weakened hand..
- Some corroboration of this comes from the Shell rumor. If they've now signed the CA and are now very pissed off and frantically doing DD, if true this could be interpreted as that they, until recently, thought someone had their back, and apparently do no longer think that.
You'll notice a lot of 'if's' and 'but's,' and like I said, it's all rather speculative and I would like to have more confirmation of the story, but if these rumors are true than the implications could be rather significant.