04-01-2013, 08:22 AM
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Caught up with a smart hf friend who owns IOC. Thinks there's credibility to these Petromin rumors and isn't surprised that Shell is still interested. Thinks there may be 5 million shares short tied to the Petromin connection, so expects real covering to start. That being said, he already thought Petromin had been losing power and influence in PNG and he doesn't believe that they have even been kept apprised of what's happening with IOC's deal process; so after years of Petromin's shenanigans, he felt comfortable anyway they had become almost irrelevant with O'Neill running the country. BUT, they've continued to have an impact in emboldening shorts and slowing IOC's progress - that may change now! He said the receipt of several bids for E/A was proof that IOC prevailed.
Says PNG is on extended holiday for Easter through Monday so the press may be slow early this week. But the chatter alone will be enough to break the back of the 14 million share short position.
Also thinks if Petromin is being dismantled, it changes the game for timing in selling the gas from Triceratops. Thinks a deal can quickly be inked to feed gas from Triceratops to PNG LNG if XOM doesn't win the E/A bidding war. Also thinks PRE would have no problem going along with this strategy and Duma/O'Neill would love to keep the pipeline and LNG construction workers busy and get more early cash flow from adding trains.
His last thought is that the rumors of Shell signing a CA and engaging in the bidding war for E/A would be a major breakthrough if true. He thinks this would mean that if Shell doesn't win the operatorship for the Gulf Project, they will likely place a friendly bid for all of IOC. IOC would then release other bidders from restrictions to ensure it gets a fair value if it is in play. This is apparently what IOC's CFO said would happen in a PNG Industry News article last year.
This is all one man's opinion (albeit a smart one!). Very positive, but do your own dd
Caught up with a smart hf friend who owns IOC. Thinks there's credibility to these Petromin rumors and isn't surprised that Shell is still interested. Thinks there may be 5 million shares short tied to the Petromin connection, so expects real covering to start. That being said, he already thought Petromin had been losing power and influence in PNG and he doesn't believe that they have even been kept apprised of what's happening with IOC's deal process; so after years of Petromin's shenanigans, he felt comfortable anyway they had become almost irrelevant with O'Neill running the country. BUT, they've continued to have an impact in emboldening shorts and slowing IOC's progress - that may change now! He said the receipt of several bids for E/A was proof that IOC prevailed.
Says PNG is on extended holiday for Easter through Monday so the press may be slow early this week. But the chatter alone will be enough to break the back of the 14 million share short position.
Also thinks if Petromin is being dismantled, it changes the game for timing in selling the gas from Triceratops. Thinks a deal can quickly be inked to feed gas from Triceratops to PNG LNG if XOM doesn't win the E/A bidding war. Also thinks PRE would have no problem going along with this strategy and Duma/O'Neill would love to keep the pipeline and LNG construction workers busy and get more early cash flow from adding trains.
His last thought is that the rumors of Shell signing a CA and engaging in the bidding war for E/A would be a major breakthrough if true. He thinks this would mean that if Shell doesn't win the operatorship for the Gulf Project, they will likely place a friendly bid for all of IOC. IOC would then release other bidders from restrictions to ensure it gets a fair value if it is in play. This is apparently what IOC's CFO said would happen in a PNG Industry News article last year.
This is all one man's opinion (albeit a smart one!). Very positive, but do your own dd