04-13-2013, 03:06 AM
optionstrad
Couple things to remember
.
First the last few days selling oil was getting slmmed as were some other small explorers. So I put not much of an emphasis on the drop frpm 74-68.
Second, I have heard from a hedge or 2 that lots of money is ready and waiting for the announcement to buy in. retail will sell the news, insitutions will be buying. Cap and Wells and Chandler did NOT but into a high risk story to sell on a $20 pop .They are in this for the long haul. They believe IOC is worth more than OSH...so at least $200 per share.
Third If Its Shell, they will pay over $1.50 per mcf as IOC has had $1.50 in hand for several months.
Fourth, the announcement will be a big one. There will be more SD's on T2 as well , with additional cash upfront. But IOC want to keep a big slug of T2, they feel it has as much as EA.
We should shoot well over $125 on firm news. IOC is taking its time beacuase it wants all t's crossed and i's dotted, expect a rapid FID too. Mgmt figured out that they need 1) Iron clad support of Govt. PA for new scheme 2) completed social mapping 3) No mou's etc etc. A firm deal. The tighter the deal the higher the PPS goes. Smart move by mgmt to use extra time and get a bash proof deal
er8 from yahoo
Couple things to remember
.
First the last few days selling oil was getting slmmed as were some other small explorers. So I put not much of an emphasis on the drop frpm 74-68.
Second, I have heard from a hedge or 2 that lots of money is ready and waiting for the announcement to buy in. retail will sell the news, insitutions will be buying. Cap and Wells and Chandler did NOT but into a high risk story to sell on a $20 pop .They are in this for the long haul. They believe IOC is worth more than OSH...so at least $200 per share.
Third If Its Shell, they will pay over $1.50 per mcf as IOC has had $1.50 in hand for several months.
Fourth, the announcement will be a big one. There will be more SD's on T2 as well , with additional cash upfront. But IOC want to keep a big slug of T2, they feel it has as much as EA.
We should shoot well over $125 on firm news. IOC is taking its time beacuase it wants all t's crossed and i's dotted, expect a rapid FID too. Mgmt figured out that they need 1) Iron clad support of Govt. PA for new scheme 2) completed social mapping 3) No mou's etc etc. A firm deal. The tighter the deal the higher the PPS goes. Smart move by mgmt to use extra time and get a bash proof deal
er8 from yahoo