04-19-2013, 11:03 AM
Cash to buy back the split shares would be the same total as the pre-split shares, but I agree a split and the Singapore listing are important. But I think the split is a last step in the process. I would not be surprised that there are limitations on what IOC can do with its capital structure until the SD is done. If we remember the Mitsui JVOA has restrictions on that. For instance, actually issuing debt before any deal could be considered a weakening of the financial position and could affect financing/ FID. That's why the PRE funding is important. There's enough cash to keep the company going until a SD happens.
So ideally it seems that the SD must happen injecting cash and creating value in the monetized asset. That's the first arrow out of the quiver. Then if there is enough up-front cash, a moderate one-time dividend to reward shareholders elevates stock price and fries shorts as they must come up with the dividend in addition to covering their short position. Arrow 2. At that point pps is doing nicely and then is the time to announce a split (at one time someone mentioned a 5-1 would be good at $120; we should be there), and then the listing on the Singapore exchange. Arrows 3 and 4 and the shorts are down and out and IOC shareholders are velly velly happy.
So ideally it seems that the SD must happen injecting cash and creating value in the monetized asset. That's the first arrow out of the quiver. Then if there is enough up-front cash, a moderate one-time dividend to reward shareholders elevates stock price and fries shorts as they must come up with the dividend in addition to covering their short position. Arrow 2. At that point pps is doing nicely and then is the time to announce a split (at one time someone mentioned a 5-1 would be good at $120; we should be there), and then the listing on the Singapore exchange. Arrows 3 and 4 and the shorts are down and out and IOC shareholders are velly velly happy.