John:
You are absolutely right about Wayne. Wayne is one of the biggest reasons the institutional shareholder base is so strong in thier position. Wayne is highly respected and trusted by the institutional community. I'm not sure how many realize his importance in keeping the base intact. I thought of creatinga poll based on the last time someone spoke to Wayne. He will "go dark" just prior to the deal announcement as he is brought into the inner circle on the deal.
As it relates to Phil, I am shocked by the news today or at least the timing. I am a big fan of his and what he's accomplished but it has become clear for some time that the company needed to get to the next level. They could not do that without the government and the $$ from a deal. Whether he was an impediment in the late stages here or just not acceptable to the bidders, it is unfortunate. Phil was viewed skeptically by many institutional investors. While beimg smart investors though, most have never created or run companies. I will follow Phil with interest in his future endeavors.
I think it was Art who posted that perhaps Shell is the winner and Phil won't go along on that ride, at least as the CEO. This makes the most sense to me as Phil is retiring on his own terms and I would imagine timed this so he is the CEO the day the deal is announced (prior to April 30th). This saves Phil from being replaced by the evil empire once the deal is done.
The other option that Phil had to retire to complete the deal is also possible but why not wait? Perhaps Phil ruffled feathers in the past at the winning bidder and they just wanted him out of the way. In any event, the BoD has to do whats in the best interest of all shareholders and if that means Phil had to step aside or wanted to then so be it. If there were anything materially negative behind the scenes it would have had to been disclosed so the fact that this was all that was announced is supportive of the deal being almost done. I think as others have pointed out, the tea leaves in the PR hinted to that.
What will tomorrow bring?