Connected Dots---->RDS SD partner

[CesiumFormate]

If I were Shell I would make a good offer for for all licenses in cash or stock - essentially a full development asset purchase. This would be as good as a buyout, but once accepted it would be difficult to undo since it was part of the bidding process and would be an asset sale and not effectively put IOC up for sale. Connecting the dots with Pacific Rubialis essentially saying they may be getting a quick cash return on their Triceratops investment -- I think we need to consider that a major (Shell) wants full control. If they made an offer to buy out all the licenses for cash, then effectively there is nothing left in IOC except cash, and down stream assets. This effectively keeps a public buyout from happening. IOC will be pretty easy to value. Value of Shell stock or cash, plus PV of downstream assets. It would leave nothing Phil would want to operate as a CEO. IOC would effectively be a holding company with a refinery. I don't like this scenario, but it is a possibility. It shifts the risk of development and part of the upside from the IOC shareholders to the new asset owner (Shell). I would hope something like this would not be for less Thant $3 per mcf cash equivalent. At 11T's, that would be .67 x $33 Billion, or $22 billion, or about $500 per share.

Would Shell pay that much up front to keep IOC out of play? At $2 it would be $325 per share.

Just a crazy thought.

CF