04-24-2013, 10:56 PM
That is the 64-gazillion $$ question, John. As I understand it, the optimistic conventional wisdom answer is that so many of those in the know (the bidders and the investment banks) are under stand-still agreements due to signing the confidentiality agreements, so the price can't reflect their actions yet. Then there's those that simply will not accept that IOC will make a deal until they actually do, given their history. Add in the intense short actions, and you have a price of $75. Still, you'd think a few unhindered major players would have the chutzpah to take a shot at a huge payoff, but I guess not.
About voting "low," you may not be the only one. I suspect that many are not voting their "best" guess, but instead their "best guess that will not cause them disappointment." If so, perhaps we will need to add a little to the consensus to determine the groups' "best" guess.
About voting "low," you may not be the only one. I suspect that many are not voting their "best" guess, but instead their "best guess that will not cause them disappointment." If so, perhaps we will need to add a little to the consensus to determine the groups' "best" guess.