04-29-2013, 10:14 AM
Sam, I really appreciate your posts. I'm going to add my perspective on this and some of it involves Phil's vision and dream for IOC and his pioneering spirit. I don't think many will dispute his pioneering spirit; without that he never moves a refinery to a remote island. He never takes up licenses at the request of the PNG government that majors had abandoned. The other is his dream as stated in the IOC vision statement: "Interoil's focus is the construction of its oil refinery in Papua New Guinea; the exploration of its various exploration licenses; and the development of a fully integrated oil company that will own and operate assets from the wellhead to the gas pump. The refinery is expected to process 32,500 barrels of oil per day and result in PNG becoming an exporter of refined petroleum products". This is from a very informative AIF filing with the SEC for YE 2003:
People really should take the time to read through this as it even discusses PIE and the fact that it has in the past been involved in exploration in the SW US and I believe this is the entity Phil will get very active in to continue or start a new dream.
Many of us invested in this dream maybe not fully understanding Phil or this dream. He has been driven by this dream all through this SD process. None of us know what all has gone on in that board room, but I think it's a safe bet that for a long time Phil has made it clear that if it gets to the point where this dream can't be achieved, he would consider retiring or maybe even selling out. He has no interest in working for someone else; few entrepreneurs do. We know he had a dream of working with EWC and even Flex because they are concepts he believes in AND it would result in more retained ownership for IOC and its shareholders, as well as substantially higher cash flows. And it would retain operatorship as well as achieve full integration; hs dream and the original vision for IOC. He was living and working for the stated company vision. Isn't that what he's supposed to do?
IOC started out looking for oil and if you read that AIF you will see why; there was a belief (and still is) that it was there and others had given up looking. By a bit of great fortune they've stumbled upon something that by all original models is not supposed to be there; Vast reefs full of clean gas and rich liquids (and maybe yet oil). Huge reservoirs. Even more capability to reach that dream and objective. Had it not been this large the majors might not be back. We've often wondered why IOC has kept some of this a bit quiet. I believe this is why. The majors would want it and the dream of "to operate" would be near impossible. So they tried to hurry into deals with those that would allow the vision and dream to happen; EWC, Flex, PRE, Gunvor, etc etc. IOC could stay in the game as originally planned, but majors started telling PNG government that modular was unproven, Flex and EWC are too small. It's too risky, none can get financing. Kick them all to the curb. Give us IOC's licenses.
So it's been a battle; I think much because EA has proven as a prize now for majors; as well as PRE and maybe more. The bidding has evolved and Phil has seen it coming, and I think he has said for a while, "If it goes that way, I know we lose operatorship. I likely will retire." Maybe some of it is a power play, no doubt there have been heavy discussions, but in the end I believe (last week) the board made their decision and pick and with that the die was cast. He says they have been interviewing. I believe him based on the above. I think he's seen the writing since Feb 28th. The IBs have analyzed and recommended, the board has decided what they feel is the best deal for shareholders. Not just the 4th largest shareholder (Phil) but for all.
This is what I think has gone on.
As far as the government having final decision, that's not a new thing. OSH wanted Petronas fir their project. The government wanted Exxon. I believe IOC has the finalists who were all pre approved by the government and said they feel ????? (Notice Exxon, Shell and Total all have 5 letters so no tips there with 5 "?"s, but we also have JKM and ? who submitted bids we think). So just as with OSH it's the government's decision. And we've heard of O'Neill meeting with various parties. We should know very soon.
As for the new CEO, several good options out there. But if the deal is at hand it most likely has to be someone with stock/options now; Byker, Collin V, AZ, or possibly Kerr (would be great choice).
This is how I and some others have seen this and how it fits both what Byker said in the release, and what Phil has said.
As the saying goes, "use or flush"