05-18-2013, 03:02 AM
The CPI (consumer price index) does contain energy and food, it's the core inflation that doesn't, but both have been low for years despite of years of QE and record low interest rates.
It's also difficult to imagine QE leading to a spike in energy and food prices, but nothing else. Apart from that, higher food (and to a certain extent, energy) prices can be explained by real factors, like:
- The decline in agricultural land
- The rise in world population
- The rise of large numbers of people entering the middle classes, which shifts diets towards much less land use efficiency (for instance, to get the same amount of calories from meat you'll need 6x the amount of land to grow feedstock for cattle)
I don't think inflation is likely to take off as long as credit demand doesn't revive decisively (which is the main mechanism for QE to affect the real economy), and this isn't likely as long as there is so much slack in the economy. Household balance sheets are still smarting from the credit crisis and wages and employment are down significantly.