06-03-2013, 02:00 PM
Petro -
There is no place for the government to use or put 2 mtpa +/- for years. I believe the reason why only 1 train is being discussed at this time is that only the XOM/IOC deal for the additional PNG LNG unit was leaked.
I believe that you are looking at an unlikely worst case scenario, holding off on a second 4 mtpa for several more years. Not only would the government somehow have to find a way take the NG in kind for your scenario to come to fruition, but Ttops and other local prospects would have to all go bust. Of course, anything is possible but I doubt there's a very high probability E/A won't ramp quickly to 8+ mtpa output.
If Gulf Province doesn't get an LNG plant fed by the second 4 Ts there could be some significant local political consequences. FWIW (nothing) my bet is that Total SA will be the operator of the Gulf plant that will, when announced, be sized at a nominal 4 mtpa.
There is no place for the government to use or put 2 mtpa +/- for years. I believe the reason why only 1 train is being discussed at this time is that only the XOM/IOC deal for the additional PNG LNG unit was leaked.
I believe that you are looking at an unlikely worst case scenario, holding off on a second 4 mtpa for several more years. Not only would the government somehow have to find a way take the NG in kind for your scenario to come to fruition, but Ttops and other local prospects would have to all go bust. Of course, anything is possible but I doubt there's a very high probability E/A won't ramp quickly to 8+ mtpa output.
If Gulf Province doesn't get an LNG plant fed by the second 4 Ts there could be some significant local political consequences. FWIW (nothing) my bet is that Total SA will be the operator of the Gulf plant that will, when announced, be sized at a nominal 4 mtpa.