06-05-2013, 03:45 AM
"- IOC may also get some ownership in PNG LNG.
- I think JFT is right in that XOM will probably be spending another $1 billion or so on additional drilling in PRL 15, starting probably with Elk 3 and Antelope 4, and there may also be some drilling in other prospects in the PRL such as Mule Deer, a formation adjacent to E/A.
- Probably 22.5% of the gas sold to XOM will be from the government, in addition to part from Pacific LNG, leaving IOC a larger portion for future deals beyond the proceeds from this deal, and much more flexibility in how it proceeds from here."
Get. I'm not as clear on these details as I am on the others. Certainly sounds plausible.
As for the valuation comments, It doesn't appear the market is pricing anywhere near the true value of this deal. I consider the $1-$1.20 to be quite attractive....and without having to build an LNG plant!!! As STP often points out......think of the value this first deal creates going forward! It's important to view this deal as a starting point and not a finish line. It is transformative to IOC, unlocks tremendous value and significantly derisks the stock. Tremendously accretive.
1) IOC will receive staged payments in a transaction valued at $4B to $5B.
2) IOC will have ownership in a gathering system, pipeline, and CSP plant.
3) Cash flows from CSP starting in 2015.
4) Ability to do future deals with 4.5T to 8T (TBD) of gas and liquids at E/A.
5) As Palm states, FID and booked reserves.
6) Accelerated exploration.
etc...
I completely agree with Petro......."$1 to $1.2 to $1.50/mcf for first train and reserves booked this year make this a perfect analog to OSH...and a double from here"
- I think JFT is right in that XOM will probably be spending another $1 billion or so on additional drilling in PRL 15, starting probably with Elk 3 and Antelope 4, and there may also be some drilling in other prospects in the PRL such as Mule Deer, a formation adjacent to E/A.
- Probably 22.5% of the gas sold to XOM will be from the government, in addition to part from Pacific LNG, leaving IOC a larger portion for future deals beyond the proceeds from this deal, and much more flexibility in how it proceeds from here."
Get. I'm not as clear on these details as I am on the others. Certainly sounds plausible.
As for the valuation comments, It doesn't appear the market is pricing anywhere near the true value of this deal. I consider the $1-$1.20 to be quite attractive....and without having to build an LNG plant!!! As STP often points out......think of the value this first deal creates going forward! It's important to view this deal as a starting point and not a finish line. It is transformative to IOC, unlocks tremendous value and significantly derisks the stock. Tremendously accretive.
1) IOC will receive staged payments in a transaction valued at $4B to $5B.
2) IOC will have ownership in a gathering system, pipeline, and CSP plant.
3) Cash flows from CSP starting in 2015.
4) Ability to do future deals with 4.5T to 8T (TBD) of gas and liquids at E/A.
5) As Palm states, FID and booked reserves.
6) Accelerated exploration.
etc...
I completely agree with Petro......."$1 to $1.2 to $1.50/mcf for first train and reserves booked this year make this a perfect analog to OSH...and a double from here"