IMHO we have to look at this in a project sense. LNG trains are business units and the first 2 trains were part of the original approved PNG LNG which went to FID with certain partners. What XOM/OSH has been trying to do is prove up enough gas for additional trains; likely because XOM has ready-buyers for any gas they can produce. It's very reasonable to expect that IOC will be a partner in any train(s) of gas they provide to the expanded PNG LNG. If the same partners were to participate in an expanded PNG LNG it would essentially mean that OSH would have to pony up its share of the costs that XOM pays to IOC for well development. Doubt OSH wants to do that. And IOC should demand a higher price for only selling conditioned gas to the expanded PNG LNG project because they miss out on the added value of the LNG profit-chain.
IMHO IOC will end up a partner in the well to LNG production trains and will have to pony up their % of costs in those trains. Little risk since XOM likely has the gas marketed already. Instances of train-by-train partnerships have been presented here on this forum; it's not uncommon these days and makes sense for IOC.
As far as FID; I believe they can book reserves for the portion of EA and other resources which go to the FID stage because they are then considered "commercially viable". So if IOC initailly sells 4-5 Ts to the project, they can book that value as reserves.
IMHO people are underestimating what this means for IOC; it's huge and XOM will completely de-risk things for IOC as we go along. There's no way XOM lets resources like this slip away when they have the demand they do for LNG. It's in all of their recent presentations and planning; Demand for LNG is continuing to rise through 2030 and they'll want as much of it as they can get. IOC has what they need. Simple math.
IMHO IOC will end up a partner in the well to LNG production trains and will have to pony up their % of costs in those trains. Little risk since XOM likely has the gas marketed already. Instances of train-by-train partnerships have been presented here on this forum; it's not uncommon these days and makes sense for IOC.
As far as FID; I believe they can book reserves for the portion of EA and other resources which go to the FID stage because they are then considered "commercially viable". So if IOC initailly sells 4-5 Ts to the project, they can book that value as reserves.
IMHO people are underestimating what this means for IOC; it's huge and XOM will completely de-risk things for IOC as we go along. There's no way XOM lets resources like this slip away when they have the demand they do for LNG. It's in all of their recent presentations and planning; Demand for LNG is continuing to rise through 2030 and they'll want as much of it as they can get. IOC has what they need. Simple math.