06-10-2013, 01:39 AM
It goes back at least to May 6, as the following email from NIA was from that date:
Concurrent (CCUR) could potentially be the strongest stock in the market today from both a fundamental and technical perspective, with the largest short-term upside potential. 13 full weeks have passed since NIA began covering CCUR as its #1 favorite stock suggestion. Last week, CCUR gained $0.95 or 14% to $7.75. This was CCUR's largest weekly gain since NIA began covering the company. CCURhas now gained 3 straight weeks, with total gains over the past 3 weeks of $1.42 or 22%.
CCUR last week traded its highest volume since the final week of February, and its highest volume in an up week since the first week of February. CCUR's total volume last week of 822,507 shares was up 148% from its total volume during the previous week of 331,400 shares. NIA believes major institutions are beginning to accumulate HUGE positions in CCUR and the shorts are beginning to get squeezed.
CCUR is fundamentally a lot stronger than the last two times it attempted to break through its $8 resistance. CCUR just reported non-GAAP EPS for the quarter ending March 31st of $0.16. CCUR's closest comparison Seachange (SEAC) is projected to only report non-GAAP EPS for the quarter ending April 30th of $0.02. If SEACmeets estimates, CCUR's non-GAAP EPS for the comparable quarter will be 8X higher than SEAC, yet CCUR is currently only $7.75 vs.SEAC's current share price of $10.97!
CCUR's non-GAAP EPS last quarter of $0.16 (GAAP EPS of $0.11) was up 100% from non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 (GAAP EPS of $0.04) in the same quarter last year, while SEAC's projected non-GAAP EPS of $0.02 for the comparable quarter will be down 66.67% from $0.06 in the same quarter last year. CCUR, unlike its competitors, made a very smart decision to focus on content delivery network (CDN) IP video solutions, and America's two largest cable TV companies Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC) just began investing heavily into deploying their own IP CDNs for multi-screen video delivery, with TWC choosing CCUR's CDN technology to double their video on demand (VOD) title capacity and begin streaming VOD and live-TV to tablets, smartphones, and other IP connected devices.
CCUR's 3Q revenues and EPS far surpassed analyst estimates. Besides America's #2 cable TV operator TWC (with 12 million video subscribers) beginning to use CCUR's CDN multi-screen video solutions, so is Virgin Media (VMED), the #1 cable TV operator in the UK (with 3.8 million video subscribers). Revenues from VMED are expected to begin showing up in CCUR's 4Q results. This could potentially allow CCUR to once again blow away analyst estimates for the quarter and lead to CCUR seeing huge revenue and EPS growth in fiscal year 2014 beginning July 1st!
When CCUR reports their fiscal 2013 year-end results this summer, they will most likely report full year GAAP EPS of $0.32 and full year non-GAAP EPS of $0.50. SEAC recently reported their fiscal 2013 year-end results and reported full year GAAP EPS of negative ($0.53) and full year non-GAAP EPS of $0.48. Shortly before CCUR reports their year-end results this summer, SEAC will report their fiscal 2014 1Q results and their projected non-GAAP EPS of $0.02 will be down $0.04 year-over-year, which will reduce their trailing twelve month non-GAAP EPS from $0.48 to $0.44.
SEAC closed last week at $10.97 per share and based on this share price along with projected trailing non-GAAP EPS of $0.44 after their 1Q results, SEAC is being valued with a P/E of 24.93. Based onCCUR expected to finish fiscal year 2013 with full year non-GAAP EPS of $0.50, this same P/E will value CCUR at $12.47 per share.
Companies like CCUR that are rapidly growing their EPS typically deserve much higher P/E ratios than companies like SEAC with declining EPS. Therefore, CCUR could very easily reach a P/E of 30 based on expected non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 for the full year ending June 30th, which would value CCUR at $15. Although there are no guarantees or sure things in the stock market, we see almost no chance of CCUR continuing to trade with a non-GAAP P/E of below 20, which means CCUR should be trading at a very minimum price of $10 per share. CCUR below $10 is quite simply an opportunity that won't last for long and all NIA members who don't research CCURimmediately will regret it.
NIA's previous stock suggestion Synacor (SYNC), which initially gained 103.6% after NIA's profile, soared as much as 46% last week after announcing an expanded deal with Verizion Fios to provide TV Everywhere authentication services. NIA originally thought thatCCUR's new CDN deal with a Top 5 North American MSO could potentially be with Verizon Fios, but after performing additional due diligence we were ecstatic to determine it is TWC, which has 12 million video subscribers vs. Verizon's 5 million video subscribers.
TWC doesn't want CCUR including TWC's name in a press release yet, just like Verizon at first wouldn't allow SYNC to include their name in a press release. There have been hundreds of articles published in the media so far this year about TWC launching an iOS app and beginning to deliver VOD and live-TV to iPhones and iPads, with an Android app coming soon. Originally, the iOS app only allowed TWCsubscribers to access content from within their own home - but the latest version has expanded access to any location - making it a true TV Everywhere app. None of the articles written about TWC's new multi-screen services have discussed CCUR and the major role they are playing.
We are sure it is only a matter of time until CCUR is able to begin discussing their major TWC multi-screen CDN deal publicly, and when this time comes - CCUR will finally become recognized as the multi-screen CDN software market share leader in the pay-TV industry. Right now, almost nobody is aware of this deal yet - but once it is finally exposed publicly, we could potentially see CCUR very rapidly double or triple in share price. With just about every major pay-TV operator now planning to deploy their own CDNs, companies with the leading CDN video software solutions like CCUR could become the hottest plays on Wall Street over the next 30-90 days.
When a public company issues their annual report (10-K filing) they are legally required to disclose much more detailed info than in their quarterly reports (10-Q filings). With CCUR's fiscal year 2013 ending on June 30th, CCUR's 10-K filing is due to be released this summer and CCUR will most likely be required to provide official confirmation at that time. From NIA's experience, CCUR and TWC will most likely choose to provide official confirmation in a joint press release well before CCUR's 10-K filing. This is an equally HUGE development for both companies and TWC most likely informed CCUR that they would like to announce their agreement to the public in the form of a joint press release together with CCUR - perhaps around the time of a major industry event or trade show - for the purpose of receiving the most coverage for both companies in the media.
NIA is not an investment advisor and is not making any target prices or financial projections. Never invest based on anything NIA says. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA never recommends to buy or sell any stock.
Disclaimer: NIA currently owns 250,093 shares of CCUR. NIA intends to sell its CCUR shares in the future and can do so anytime. NIA reserves the right to add to its CCUR position at any time.
NIA is not an investment advisor. This email is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Never make investment decisions based on anything NIA says. This email is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.
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