06-13-2013, 07:33 AM
A flurry of new emails from Lebed and the NIA (more than 10 in a couple of days, really remarkable..) We'll show only a couple. This was today (Wed Jun 12 after close)
When Concurrent (CCUR) released its fiscal 3Q 2013 results at the end of April and reported year-over-year GAAP EPS growth of 175%, its trailing twelve month free cash flow increased 46% to $5.6 million from free cash flow of $3.834 million at the end of its fiscal 2Q 2013!
With 8.754 million shares outstanding, CCUR has free cash flow of $0.64 per share! CCUR can easily afford its recent 100% dividend increase to $0.12 per share each quarter or $0.48 annually for a HUGE dividend yield at $8 per share of 6%! CCUR's annual dividend of $0.48 per share represents only 75% of CCUR's $0.64 per share in free cash flow!
NIA is extremely confident that CCUR will explode into double digits next week. The shocking truth is, CCUR's #1 rival Seachange (SEAC) is up $0.10 today to $11.19 per share, and SEAC wouldn't be able to afford a $0.48 per share cash dividend like CCUR!SEAC has trailing twelve month free cash flow of $13.58 million. With 32.75 million shares outstanding, SEAC has free cash flow of $0.41 per share!
CCUR's annual dividend of $0.48 per share equals a free cash flow payout ratio of only 75%. If SEAC paid an annual dividend of $0.48 per share like CCUR, it would equal a free cash flow payout ratio of 117%, which would be unsustainable as it would eventually use up all of SEAC's cash on its balance sheet!
If SEAC matched CCUR's free cash flow payout ratio of 75%, it would only be able to pay an annual dividend of $0.31 per share! With SEAC at $11.19 per share it would have a dividend yield of only 2.77% vs. CCUR's substantially higher dividend yield at $8 of 6%!
SEAC's share price of $11.19 is 27.29X its free cash flow of $0.41 per share! If CCUR was trading for 27.29X its free cash flow of $0.64 per share, CCUR would be trading at a share price of $17.47! CCUR could easily double by the end of June, in NIA's opinion!
NIA is not an investment advisor and is not making any target prices or financial projections. Never invest based on anything NIA says. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA never recommends to buy or sell any stock.
NIA is not an investment advisor and is not making any target prices or financial projections. Never invest based on anything NIA says. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA never recommends to buy or sell any stock.
Disclaimer: NIA currently owns 250,093 shares of CCUR. NIA intends to sell its CCUR shares in the future and can do so anytime. NIA reserves the right to add to its CCUR position at any time.
NIA is not an investment advisor. This email is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Never make investment decisions based on anything NIA says. This email is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.
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