07-16-2013, 06:24 AM
you're assuming the SPA doesn't have a change of control provision. XOM isn't going to work with just anyone. There are a number of reasons why XOM wouldn't commit to blindly working with whoever acquires the majority of IOC shares. Between XOM being this far down the road, the new shareholder plan passing at the AGM, and management continually saying they don't think a buyout is in our best interest, it feels pretty unlikely at this point. I think there's a chance XOM could make a bid, but it's remote, imo. We'll do just fine with a good XOM deal that gives the new CEO the flexibility to drill and keep cranking out JV deals.