07-18-2013, 02:16 AM
The cost of additional gas from OSH is a definite factor. However, it is also important to realize, as jft alludes to, that additional potential gas from Hides, and all the gas from P'nyang, is estimates for existing and future wells from OSH. NONE of it is certified estimates from third party resource engineers. There is apparently very low certainty at this point of their even having enough gas for a third train in time or at all. It would be more economical and profitable for XOM to build trains 3 and 4 together if things go well enough for OSH, in which case whether it's for 3 or 4 I guess could be regarded as semantics; but with PRL 15 gas secured, at least XOM could be sure of being able to proceed with train 3, and could possibly access PRL 15 and/or other IOC prospects as an alternative for train 4. Back on May 24 with the PR on the XOM negotiations, Morgan Stanley referred to "the sale of gas that will underpin a 3rd train at XOM's...", although that detail was not in IOC's PR, and I think IOC is looking at it that way.