07-19-2013, 09:46 AM
Some 20+ raving emails from Lebed and the NIA later (nobody can argue they're not trying..) and we're still not above $8.. Here is the latest one from today:
I am putting my reputation on the line that Concurrent (CCUR) has an excellent chance of leading the NASDAQ in August and finishing the month as the #1 largest one month percentage gainer. In my opinion, worst case scenario... CCUR will finish August as one of the top 10 NASDAQ percentage gainers for the full month!
When CCUR set its current 52-week high of $8.45 on February 6th, it had a market cap of $73.97 million, $24.59 million in cash, and an enterprise value of $49.38 million. CCUR at the time had trailing twelve month free cash flow of $3.834 million. This gave CCUR an enterprise value/free cash flow ratio at $8.45 of 12.88.
When CCUR reported its 3Q results on April 30th, its cash position fell slightly to $22.37 million, but CCUR's trailing free cash flow increased by a shocking 46% to $5.6 million! Yesterday, CCUR closed at $7.80 with a market cap of $68.28 million and an enterprise value of $45.91 million.CCUR at yesterday's close has an enterprise value/free cash flow ratio of only 8.20!
CCUR will soon rally to a very minimum enterprise value/free cash flow ratio of 12.88, matching the ratio that CCUR had at its 52-week high of $8.45. Today with free cash flow of $5.6 million, a ratio of 12.88 would give CCUR an enterprise value of $72.13 million. After adding to itCCUR's $22.37 million in cash, CCUR would have a market cap of $94.5 million, which equals a CCUR share price of $10.80!
I bet there is at least one very wealthy and extremely experienced investor reading this very alert right now and following CCUR closely from the sidelines, trying to decide whether to accumulate now or wait for it to break $8.45. Unfortunately, I believe the overwhelming majority of retail investors are waiting to enter CCUR at $8.45, and there could be such a stampede of buying at $8.45 that some investors who place market orders to purchase shares at $8.45, may end up paying $10.80 for their shares!
Investors with a lot of wealth and experience... are probably starting to realize that they could make the biggest score of their lifetime if they decide to simply accumulate every last CCUR share available between its current price and $8.45. It is possible to accumulate a decent sized position between here and $8.45, but afterwards CCUR will become nearly impossible to accumulate without rapidly driving its share price up to substantially higher levels.
I have no way of knowing exactly how many shares are available for purchase between $8 and $8.45. My guess is... the shares available between $8 and $8.45 will be roughly equal to the shares available between $8.45 and $15. CCUR has been struggling for months to break $8.45... but instead of looking at this as a negative... look at it as a potential opportunity to make a short-term fortune, because it should be smooth sailing to $15 as soon as CCUR breaks $8.45.
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I am affiliated with a firm that owns 235,093 shares of CCUR that they intend to sell in the open market and can sell at any time. This firm reserves the right to add to its CCUR position at any time. Never invest into a stock we discuss unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. For our full disclaimer go to:http://lebed.biz/disclaimer.