Notice that Duma has transitioned completely away from arguing that InterOil’s proposed SPA would create monopolistic control by Exxon of PNG’s LNG and may not be in the best interests of the country. Since LNG and condensates are export products, his argument was invalid. His transition to arguing that the deal must conform to the 2009 Project Agreement is very likely a last-ditch effort by Duma to invite Shell into the competition.
The irony of this new argument, however, is that the gas from Elk/Antelope being supplied to PNG LNG does not require a new project agreement; it only requires a gas agreement. The Gulf LNG Project, however, does require a project agreement and the Gulf option embedded in the Exxon deal likely reflects the 2009 Project Agreement model that the NEC agreed to last year in which one train is initially built and a second train would be added subsequently.
Hence I view Duma’s new argument as being much more positive for InterOil than his previous anti-monopoly argument. It’s a brilliant tactic by the DPE head, as he is subtly inviting Shell into the game while saving face (and even taking credit for forcing the Gulf option to conform to the 2009 Project Agreement) if the Exxon deal is consummated.
Notice the positive change of language (i.e. “Duma said the government is respectful of the commercial negotiations that are ongoing between the two energy companies” ) relative to his previous quotes over the past 2 months. Also, notice that the government taking a larger than 22.5% stake is seemingly off the table (i.e. Duma reiterated that the government intends to take up its legal entitlement of a 22.5% equity share in Block PRL-15).