Very predictable what has happened here, even happens in the US. In my past experience, there was only one nuclear waste disposal company (name and location omitted) in the 90's. Then a company came along in west Texas that filed a permit to dispose of nuclear waste. Looking at the geology, it looked liked a good location, however during the public meetings a group arose to oppose the nuclear disposal site. To make a long story short, it turns out the one, permitted nuclear site was "sponsoring" the Texas nuclear site opposition group. Why? They would lose their monopoly and pricing power.
Now, don't we have the same thing here? We have a company trying to do business in a corrupt country. The shorts are way underwater. What do you do? For a few bucks, you go spread of money, lies, and opposition to the company. The question is, "hasn't this Duma thing run it's course and are the shorts getting the law of diminishing returns here? Today's price action will tell, but I think this will little impact on the stock price. Too many people think the deal to too close.
By the way, what the shorts have forgotten in this article is the reaction if this was a serious threat; IOC would sell out to Exxon. I think that would meet the 2009 MOA.
Good luck longs