I doubt there is any grand plan in Duma's gyrations other than to delay and frustrate. Trying to find logic beyond that is pointless. Duma has simply argued too many clearly contradictory positions.
I'm not sure "commercial rates" for any gas PNG wants will be able to be defined, only approximated, by any IOC/XOM deal. In the IOC/XOM deal there will be any number of elements that will include risk as a consideration. Further, it will be some time before PNG will be able to use any natural gas, and the future value of gas is very questionable. Certainly Gulf Province won't be able to use any signficant quantity of gas soon, although Port Moresby with its switch to gas turbine fired electric power should be able to use some within the next couple of years.
As to XOM's primacy in any contest for IOC's gas, I think you are correct. That doesn't mean though RDS is out of the game. There is a lot of margin available between $2 and the projected value of natural gas in the next 20 years. RDS might have to pay a relative premium to compete, but that doesn't mean they can't.
My bet still is that Gulf gets its LNG, although with a big enough incentive package (i.e. transportation infrastructure including port facilities and a petrochemical park not dependent upon LNG) the second LNG could end up in Western Province. After all, an operating LNG plant only provides so many jobs after it is built. The real job creator is the spin-off industries, especially agriculture, that will be facilitated by transportation and refrigeration becoming readily available in the region. As it has been suggested any number of times on this board. Kavo's anti-pipeline position may simply be his best negotiating strategy.
I'm not sure "commercial rates" for any gas PNG wants will be able to be defined, only approximated, by any IOC/XOM deal. In the IOC/XOM deal there will be any number of elements that will include risk as a consideration. Further, it will be some time before PNG will be able to use any natural gas, and the future value of gas is very questionable. Certainly Gulf Province won't be able to use any signficant quantity of gas soon, although Port Moresby with its switch to gas turbine fired electric power should be able to use some within the next couple of years.
As to XOM's primacy in any contest for IOC's gas, I think you are correct. That doesn't mean though RDS is out of the game. There is a lot of margin available between $2 and the projected value of natural gas in the next 20 years. RDS might have to pay a relative premium to compete, but that doesn't mean they can't.
My bet still is that Gulf gets its LNG, although with a big enough incentive package (i.e. transportation infrastructure including port facilities and a petrochemical park not dependent upon LNG) the second LNG could end up in Western Province. After all, an operating LNG plant only provides so many jobs after it is built. The real job creator is the spin-off industries, especially agriculture, that will be facilitated by transportation and refrigeration becoming readily available in the region. As it has been suggested any number of times on this board. Kavo's anti-pipeline position may simply be his best negotiating strategy.