08-11-2013, 12:51 AM
I'm not sure, but as I recall, there were 4x5000 puts put on right after last month's expiration. As I have reported last month, the call open interest and the put open interest in IOC is skewed far away from a typical COI/POI monthly distribution of around 2 to 1 or 3 to 2. Interoil is the very rare opposite nearby, about 1 COI to 2 POI, and an estimated count 2 days ago showed 21,000 COI and 42,000 POI. My conclusion, is that the big shorts in IOC are the ones that for the past few months at least, are using the large put positions to influence their short positions and have been making a lot of money on this trade. Now the initial strikes made a month ago were the 70,75,80,and 85 as I recall. recently, tho it seemed whatever they're doing here was moved up (rolled) 5 points to 75 to 85 and 80 to 90. Correct me if I'm off on this. So, I've guessed that the move up 5 points was because someone recalculated and moved those positions higher. the 20+,000 puts are still there like last month and maybe the 2-3 months (at least) even before that. A guess from this is that someone (shorts) wants this stock down around 80 or lower on the Aug expiration, but it may not get there. Lastly, the initial 5k put positions were put on around $ .69, 1.40, 3.50, and 7+, for the 70,75,80,85 puts. I figured these positions have cost about $2.50 to $3 average per put for the total amount. Would like to hear from those more knowledgeable in options to explain what they think the above would lead to in price action. tia trans