08-22-2013, 05:50 AM
My gut is that is what happens. Train 3 is gas piped from EA into the spur at Kerema. That's all been planned out, the pipeline route established and all social mapping done and approved by DPE. I would guess with Mitsui all of the logistics were pretty well figured out on the CSPs. IOC is settling up with Mitsui and part of that is that IOC owns the engineering, plans etc.
From there it's how much gets proven up and when. Talk has been that the existing pipeline is big enough for only the 3rd train (at one time there was talk that possibly a 4th train, but last I heard 3 is a no-brainer). So if only 3, a new pipeline is necessary no matter what for further expansion of PNG LNG. The deliniation of EA/PRL 15 will be part of that, but so will be other prospects in that area (IOC or not). If an LNG plant is required in Gulf, whomever is the operator will want close-by gas and Bluff location makes a lot of sense still. Then Wahoo and other prospects in 236 could be eyed for further PNG LNG expansion with a new pipeline following the road to PM/PNG LNG; less costly than a new subsea and less controversial.
Exxon won't let this opportunity slip away when they have desires to max out PNG LNG at 6 trains or so. But they better lock something up before it's too late and someone else with a desire to be the next LNG operator strikes a deal. Could be a huge strategic blunder for them.
From there it's how much gets proven up and when. Talk has been that the existing pipeline is big enough for only the 3rd train (at one time there was talk that possibly a 4th train, but last I heard 3 is a no-brainer). So if only 3, a new pipeline is necessary no matter what for further expansion of PNG LNG. The deliniation of EA/PRL 15 will be part of that, but so will be other prospects in that area (IOC or not). If an LNG plant is required in Gulf, whomever is the operator will want close-by gas and Bluff location makes a lot of sense still. Then Wahoo and other prospects in 236 could be eyed for further PNG LNG expansion with a new pipeline following the road to PM/PNG LNG; less costly than a new subsea and less controversial.
Exxon won't let this opportunity slip away when they have desires to max out PNG LNG at 6 trains or so. But they better lock something up before it's too late and someone else with a desire to be the next LNG operator strikes a deal. Could be a huge strategic blunder for them.