'Dmarque' pid='31722' datel Wrote:
'admin' pid='31718' datel Wrote:As it happens, I don't think Pavel has done anything to be ashamed off. His cautious stance up until now has been quite on the mark, and his price target is simply based on NAV calculations that takes a de-facto P1 level and multiplies it with a price average for deals in the region. Personally I think the latter is a little too conservative, as E/A isn't just your garden variety resource, but gives him room for increase when deal metrics become known.That's just the point isn't it? He hasn't done anything to be ashamed of.......That is what playing it too close to the vest is all about.....TO NOT FAIL. However, behavior like that results in providing minimal information that does us no real service. Reminds me alot of a Prevent Defense. If you keep playing that way then in the long run you get nowhere because you're not playing to win .....you just keep playin' to not lose. The confident and agressive team pulls ahead of the meek team playing to not lose.
Sorry......I dont see the value in doing work that is merely......"Nothing to be ashamed of". I prefer those who do the fine detail work and come to a REAL conclusion and are sure enough about their work to stand behind it and make a real and useful prediction.
Well, sorry, I think admin has it about right. I am at an age and stage of life where I want to know what the low figure is and what is the reasoning. Pavel gave it quite clearly. Confident and aggressive? Buy calls. Preferring to not lose? Sell otm puts. I have been quite happy with the latter for some two years running. You might want to dig up G. Allison's classic work on Groupthink to better understand how the outlyer aids analysis.