(11-14-2013, 12:58 PM)Dmarque Wrote:
(11-14-2013, 12:25 PM)admin Wrote: As it happens, I don't think Pavel has done anything to be ashamed off. His cautious stance up until now has been quite on the mark, and his price target is simply based on NAV calculations that takes a de-facto P1 level and multiplies it with a price average for deals in the region. Personally I think the latter is a little too conservative, as E/A isn't just your garden variety resource, but gives him room for increase when deal metrics become known.That's just the point isn't it? He hasn't done anything to be ashamed of.......That is what playing it too close to the vest is all about.....TO NOT FAIL. However, behavior like that results in providing minimal information that does us no real service. Reminds me alot of a Prevent Defense. If you keep playing that way then in the long run you get nowhere because you're not playing to win .....you just keep playin' to not lose. The confident and agressive team pulls ahead of the meek team playing to not lose.
Sorry......I dont see the value in doing work that is merely......"Nothing to be ashamed of". I prefer those who do the fine detail work and come to a REAL conclusion and are sure enough about their work to stand behind it and make a real and useful prediction.
The "prevent defense" sets you up to lose. Simple. The basketball analogy is the "four corners offense" where you hold the ball and pass it around the four corners until it gets intercepted and the other team takes it in to score. DePaul back in the late 70s ran the 4 corner offense. They had three players destined for the NBA, Cummings, McGuire and Bradshaw. Two of them went to the NBA Hall of Fame. They were close to undefeated but DePaul didn't even make it to the Sweet 16 because of the "four corners offense." Had a big lead at the end and started passing it around.
You're right. If you want something inside the box, hire a mortician.