11-15-2013, 12:10 AM
'Stavros' pid='31739' datel Wrote:JFT: You ask the right question WHO KNOWS? .... Dr Michael Hession knows but he's not telling. The Shorts always thought they knew the answer but now they know they don't .... AND they're worried. What I said about North Oil is that he didn't state his basis. Pavel Molchanov has a $100 price target based on a $1 per mcf equivalent deal. His figure is based on the average Asia deal values for the past 5 years of $1.22 that included many irrelevant projects. Pavel goes further and says he will re-state his views after the deal numbers are revealed ... possibly momentarily ... because he now knows his basis is too low. People surmise the following if IOC selects XOM: + $400 Million up-front cash ( ie more than the syndicated loan amount of $250 Million) + 10%+ ownership of PNG LNG Trains 1-3; ca$h flow beginning 3Q 2014 + Carry for the drilling of several additional dilineation wells + Large percentage ownership of the condensate produced in E/ A brings ca$h flow within 18 months If IOC selects someone else you know for sure that the details had to trump XOM by a significant amount. I come to a deal value of $2.50 per mcf at the minimum. I also believe that after the number are known the PPS will reflect the deal value and not the artificial level being maintained by short sellers and the Market Makers of the world. So we wait ... but this time no longer than 6 more weeks.
Briefly, the surmise of the condensate is a significate item. Think string when you look at the upcomming drilling. A thin layer at E/A to a stack at Triceritops.
On the ground, there is already a vetical infrastructure for condensate in region.
Above ground...experience,knowledge and appetite.
So... when the dinner bell rings, recall the words spoken prior to taking you seat at the table.
"Robust returns" And that my friends, is straight from the Tigers mouth.
Cheers for you all.
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