'cybersssss' pid='32180' dateline='<a href="tel:1384947 Wrote:There are many ways to value stock such as ioc. Without seeing the deal numbers it is difficult to ascertain what ioc should be price at after a deal. One can use the boe to extrapolate a number based on that, which is how many e+p companies are valued. Once gulf LNG comes in board this will be easier to do because that gas can be monetized, however at this time it is premature.
i think that the easisest way to look at this BEFORE ioc has a monetization event, is using comps. I know this has been mentioned before and in the MS report, but oil search seems to be the most apropo. OSH currently has a market cap of 11 billion. This is based mainly on png LNG coming on line I'm q3. IF the deal is done with ioc and ioc gets a similar equity percentage I. Png LNG as oil search, I think it would be fair to say that ioc should have a similar market cap.
OSH owns 29% of png LNG which is 6.9 tcf. This comes out to about 2 tcf of the project. If ioc supplies 4.7 tcf of gas, let's say 70 % comes to ioc the company, which is 3.29 tcf and we throw in 1 tcf for infrastructure, we still have at least the same, if not more gas supplied to png LNG than OSH.
So valuing ioc based on oil search valuation, the pps comes out to around 250 for ioc. This is immediate pps, not five years out, IF ioc gets the equity stake in png LNG. Furthermore, ioc appears to have more upside as this calculation is really just for 4.7 tcf of elk antelope. There is around double the gas there and we have triceratops as well and further unexplored wells.
Please refute this and tell me why I'm wrong and how ioc isn't the buy of the year right now?
OSH has 2 trains and the NG contribution is lower with IOC 1 train vs OSH 2 trains. Unless we get a 2 train deal with Exxon of course. Those 2 trains are close to production and also less then 1 year away . When will train 3 produce ? What about a train 4?what percentage will IOC get in the first two trains?Could IOC buyout part of the PNG interest in PNGLNG??So many possibilies. All good for shareholders short and long term. Targets unless conservative seem a waste of time. Most can agree today the most conservative valuation seems to be $100 for IOC and that's worst case . Upside from there with more information