'admin' pid='33272' datel Wrote:[quote='SamAdams' pid='33269' dateline='1386360112'] Please reread the Westlake report form March and their analysis of a 2 train LNG deal. He wasn't far off the mark and his price targets should still be valid. they should have discussed the LNG bit more this morning. It was clear the analysts were not "prepped" ahead of the call.
Well, yes, but LNG train apart, I'm just wondering whether Pavel's sums add up for PRL15 based on GLJ's midpoint (9.9Tcfe):
- IOC gets a $4.1B payment
- That stake is 47.5% of PRL15
- Meaning PRL15 is valued at $8.63B
- IOC remains with 30% ($2.59B)
$4.1 + $2.59 = 6.69B, not $4.9B that Pavel calculates, and the difference is too big to be explained by a discount factor, since most of it is cash and recertification will take place within 2 years, if I understood that correctly.
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I believe the discrepancy is that Pavel is not adding back in the $2.59B. He indicated he is ascribing no value at this time for the new plant...which is what IOC will own 30% of eventually.