I think the pattern should be clear to anyone by now. The elephant in the room is actually a 12 million share (pound) short gorilla. The estimates, drilling reports, sell down deals, etc. all are secondary when it comes to the share price because the IOC shorts are committed to holding the stock price in check regardless of the actual news or metrics.
This company should be taken private by Chandler, Paulson, and a band of investors or the company should solitic offers through their IBs. They don't have to accept any offers but it would sure help the share price to get some competitive bidding going.
I can see checking back in here in 2015 after more drilling, more certified resources, possible FID, etc. and the IOC share price still languishing in the high $50's/low $60s.
If the IOC BOD is content with waiting for proper valuation in 2016-2018, they should at least declare a minimum 2:1 stock split to increase the float, declare a one time divi to locate all of the shares, or at least a small ongoing divi for the same reasons. Lastly, ask the large shareholders to call in their shares that are being used to allow the continued manipulation by the shorts.