The long term picture

[Kaliboo]

I may have missed it but I have not seen any comments on the long term impacts of the Total SPA vs what an XOM deal might have delivered.  Everyone is focused on the current upset for good reason and I am too.  But the XOM deal would not have been a good thing if you believe IOC has more to come.  To maximize value for IOC we need 2 or more lng plants accessible to our assets to provide price competition on the gas.  And we'll own 30% of our plant.   Because we won't own any of the XOM plant, they will have to bid up the price for our gas to make it worth our while, if they need/want more gas. So it's good to have potential options.  Also the XOM plant gives us a lever in future deals with TOT or any other SMs.  MH is setting up a nice future dynamic for the benefit of IOC.  But we may never see it.  As we further derisk E/A and Trice as well as potentially add new discoveries all in 2014,  the temptation for multiple companies to buy IOC may be overwhelming.  In 18 months this IOC forum could be history due to tremendous success.  We all thought that day had arrived.  The bait is not quite juicy enough for the Mother of All Deals...yet.  2014 should fix that.  So it sucks for the moment but I can hold on for the mega deal while keeping my eyes on the rigs and the announcements that are coming.  It seems 1 year, 2 at most.  The more we derisk and discover, largely at Totals expense, the more valuable we become.  But I speculate.