Agree for most part but some clarifications needed.
Government Approval is more than one thing:
1. Gas Agreement- Can come at any time and Duma hinted that it could come quickly now that Total has been chosen. This Agreement lays out parameters on how project must proceed, etc. Starts the clock ticking and requires performance.
2. Per the SPA the approvals required are a) approval of the SPA and b) approval of the PRL transfer (defined as 61.3% put in Total's name)
3. Licence renewals
To close with Total there are basically 2 conditions:
1. Approvals per 2 above
2. PacLng Interests acquired directly or indirectly by IOC.
I can see the Gas Agreement being approved most any time in this with specific parameters and ranges included.
Also can see the SPA being approved most any time by the Gov
However, IOC will not request the PRL 15 transfer into Total's name most likely until after the IPI Settlement. They now own approx 76% of PRL 15 (with PacLng Interests owning balance) and could request the PRL transfer of 61.3% to Total, but that's risky for obvious reasons.
IPI "dominoe" needs to fall, but could come after Gas Agreemnt approval. It's in IOC's best interest IMHO to settle it before, again for obvious reasons.
Government Approval is more than one thing:
1. Gas Agreement- Can come at any time and Duma hinted that it could come quickly now that Total has been chosen. This Agreement lays out parameters on how project must proceed, etc. Starts the clock ticking and requires performance.
2. Per the SPA the approvals required are a) approval of the SPA and b) approval of the PRL transfer (defined as 61.3% put in Total's name)
3. Licence renewals
To close with Total there are basically 2 conditions:
1. Approvals per 2 above
2. PacLng Interests acquired directly or indirectly by IOC.
I can see the Gas Agreement being approved most any time in this with specific parameters and ranges included.
Also can see the SPA being approved most any time by the Gov
However, IOC will not request the PRL 15 transfer into Total's name most likely until after the IPI Settlement. They now own approx 76% of PRL 15 (with PacLng Interests owning balance) and could request the PRL transfer of 61.3% to Total, but that's risky for obvious reasons.
IPI "dominoe" needs to fall, but could come after Gas Agreemnt approval. It's in IOC's best interest IMHO to settle it before, again for obvious reasons.