Lloking to the past is not moaning or whining or being an options player or being short as it relaites to IOC - it is instructive. Unfortunately the new management team has suffered from some, but not all, of the issues of the past. While they delivered a deal on time, they delivered one below expectations ( only $ per mcf) and botched the dlelivery of the message. This is not an indictment of the deal, as I think it is excellent, but it was the expectations aroudn price. Shareholders were unrealistc, not managmenet. MH knew what the market price of the gas was and delivered on this. He was realistic about where the deal would get done. But he also knew where expectations were - that was the issue. Perhaps that is why CV is gone.
That being said, I agree with both Mike and JFT on this. JFT's upside is spot on, and one I believe in. But I also agree with Mike that we all need to be realistic. All the drilling activity is great, but what if the first couple of wells are dissapointing? Perhaps the next 5-6 are awesome. I am certain at least a couple of the wells will deliver the results and confirmation we are all waiting for, but we don't know whether they will be well 1 or well 6. The timing could impact the share price in the short to intermediate term either positively or negatively and here is where being realistic is important.
The IPI resolution could also being messy or miscontrued. Even the team has not shown the ability to deliver a clean message so this could also create short term volatility. MH stated in Boston on 12/13/13 that the IPI deal was done and just being papered - and yet here we are 44 days later.
Would major holders sell at $150 before drilling results? Sure. What tihe drilling program is dissapointing or just ok? A triple from here? not many would turn their backs. We all waited for $1.25/$1.50/$2.00 per mcf and that did not happen - and won't. MH delivered that best deal he could and that was for $0.80 gross. He dealt with reality. I think he would deal with a takeover offer in the same way. he would not say (like PM) I'm not seliing becaues I'm worth $500 pps, he would say at this point in our life cycle this is what SMs pay in this situation and what's fair is fair. I honestly don't know if that $125 pp or $150 or $200, but Hession would deal with it in that way. The good news is that generally speaking I don't there is too much in the way of expectations built into the stock at this point, which is always good as it presents the opportunity for positive catalysts to get the stock going again. Low expectations and positive surprises are what will move the stock.