(01-30-2014, 12:39 AM)ltinvest Wrote: If, and this is a big "if" because I don't believe it to be true, Dr Hession has not finalized the minority interest buy out because he is not satisfied with the terms, I want to thank him for not settling and continuining to negotiate the best deal for shareholders! I want the best deal......not A deal.
In football terms, with the present quarterback we've seen one completed pass and two interceptions.
If I were to guess (thus establishing the full value of this post) CC thought Hession gave away the farm in his deal with Total. CC thus wants from IOC not his proportional share, but an amount consistant with what he deems the true value of E/A. So we now have brinksmanship, pitting CC agains Hession, with CC balancing his demand for more against the potential for deal failure. Such a failure would certainly be catastrophic for all involved (although the government in time would likely make out handsomely with far, far more valuable leases returned to be put up for new bidding).
Failure to provid a revenue neutral buyout of minority interests and failure to accomplish such a buyout within the stated time frame, should either or both occur, won't be a good thing for IOC. The best deal to be hoped for at this time from CC might be one that greatly reduces IOC's share in E/A but allows IOC to retain all of its licenses, leaving stockholders hoping that the new drilling program will be highly successful.
Let's also not forget there have been no documents yet made public assuring IOC will have a 30% LNG share, nor announcing the terms of the stated Total buyin option for PPL exploration, nor revealing the JVOA which was presumably an attachment to the Agreement. As best I can tell the existence of these are all currently based solely in our hopes and belief in good faith.
As for my position on this stock, I am a committed long as I continue to see a much higher probability for great upside potential than company failure. Anyone claiming I might have a different agenda is simply wrong. Finally, those who continue to suggest we've seen a string of accomplishments by the new management justifying great optimism? Just isn't the case.