Good grief Sam, you really don't think outside the box and stereotype others with your own personal circumstances. This deal is outstanding to me and let me explain why:
- I heavily invested in IOC in mid 2008 just before the market crash (and lost 66% in 11days btw).
- I doubled down a couple days after ant 1 hit
- All the money I invested, if lost would significantly set back my retirement, however would not change my lifestyle.
- None of my investment is margined and is only stock based (couple thousand in some options)
- I am personally invested and do not have to report to clients or a portfolio manager.
- I am 40.
Now in 2008/early 2009 I was quite nervous wondering if the world market was the second coming of Godzilla. After the pps stabilized, my last big risk was getting the gas to market. For 4 long years, it was always JUST out of reach.
Now that risk is GONE. Will the closing of the deal go beyond Mar 31st, maybe. Will there be cost overruns, most likely. Will timeliness slip, of course. Will the pps rise and then sharply plummet losing 40% in 2 days - I almost guarantee it. But you know what the gas will get to market (you are crazy if you think the ipi's will block this) and 13 bucks an M on 30% ownership over a few decades sounds pretty damn fine to me.
I get, that for some, waiting isn't an option and I get that a lot of people lost a chit load on the pps crash and I get that a lot of people are upset. I feel for yah, I was there at the end of 2008, and all I can say is there is now a ever growing light at the end of the tunnel.
I don't care what the pps is next week or in 6 months and I get super excited about future drilling and how big this super field will end up being. So for me and my wife, this deal is out-fahking-standing, so you will have to forgive me if I don't live in your glass half empty world.
ps - why is every one assuming that the delay in ipi closure is because of IOC and the ipi's? Maybe it is because Total is finding a buyer for the ipi's interest. Maybe it is because IOC wants to announce the deal closure with total, the new partner(s) and ipi buyout in one shot to avoid the press release disaster in Dec. Maybe it is because IOC wants to announce after the prl/pdl/ppl documentation is updated. Or maybe because of 5 other reasons.
pss - a month or so back Total verbally informed IOC they would waive the ipi closure as a reqirement for closing the sell down deal - which doesn't mean the ipi interest won't be closed when the sell down is closed.
psss - the olympics and the olympic experience is very very cool