02-17-2014, 10:26 AM
Stavros-Their interest on the new licenses it appears will go to zero. I believe its an IOC issue not a project issue. IMHO worst case IOC carries the minority interest as a footnote on their financials. A footnote is worth substantially less than your name on a lease and a right to build an LNG plant. Way less a prudent man would conclude. Civelli did not become rich being a stupid man. He must realize that he has no negotiating position anymore. Meanwhile that contract that kept Hession from agreeing to Civelli's dollar demands also has some protection for Civelli and the other minority interest. Pavel M has recently estimated the total payment to the minority for all their interest is $750 million.
At that rate IOC if they have what GLJ states and I think they will have more well IOC makes a nice profit on the buyout. Remember the minority interest is 25% I conclude that IOC will receive $4.1 Billion at least at certification I believe.
Here's the scenario. Buy out the minority for $750 mill and resell it to Total for a $1 Billion at least. Retain 30% and the LNG plant interest of 30%. That makes the profit on the IOC buyout a net positive for IOC on the buyout to the tune of $800 mill to $1 Billion. Part of that dollar receipt assumes a resale on the minority interest outside PRL 15 to a Woodside type..See the AFR articles about a Woodside interest and they are talking to Interoil not Total about that interest.
For sure the minority will be gone. The price has not been announced but Pavel M has a good feel for the situation it appears.
When ??
At that rate IOC if they have what GLJ states and I think they will have more well IOC makes a nice profit on the buyout. Remember the minority interest is 25% I conclude that IOC will receive $4.1 Billion at least at certification I believe.
Here's the scenario. Buy out the minority for $750 mill and resell it to Total for a $1 Billion at least. Retain 30% and the LNG plant interest of 30%. That makes the profit on the IOC buyout a net positive for IOC on the buyout to the tune of $800 mill to $1 Billion. Part of that dollar receipt assumes a resale on the minority interest outside PRL 15 to a Woodside type..See the AFR articles about a Woodside interest and they are talking to Interoil not Total about that interest.
For sure the minority will be gone. The price has not been announced but Pavel M has a good feel for the situation it appears.
When ??