'ArtM72' pid='38683' datel Wrote:I can't answer for Getit but I believe I have some of the same views. I am not against sending E/A gas to PNG LNG. I have in fact argued for years that was the most economical and logical choice for first gas, especially after it became widely recognized the current pipe had a tee and could transport 3 trains. What I want to remind everyone jumping on the PNG LNG bandwagon is:
1. There are strong political interests in Gulf Province that have for some time been demanding to have the LNG plant built in their province. What is the price of domestic peace in the construction of these facilities? What is the cost of widespread disfavor and resentment? Lord knows that while XOM had peace in Port Moresby building the LNG plant they had their hands full with the locals out in the Highlands.
2. XOM and its partners evidently have been not all that keen on sharing ownership of their facility as evidenced by months of exclusive negotiations leading to nothing. There is the possibility IOC and XOM got close, only to have their plans rejected by the government. Sure, Duma is gone, but that doesn't mean issues he was fomenting have disappeared.
3. Some may believe that two separate facilities provide greater reliability than a single facility. Any local disruption could certainly cut production, but with two plants the chance of losing all of the country's production should be considerably less. I also suspect should truly major new reserves be located expansion at two different locations likely would go much more quickly.
For these reasons I question whether anyone should believe it should be a slam dunk that E/A's first allocation will go to PM. Total's statement couldn't have been more clear: they aren't rule anything out at this time.
Gulf will get what they want but the timing will be dictated by what is best for the country. PNG does not want idle workers, they want to keep skilled labor on-island, employed and pumping money into the economy. So much infrastructure is needed that constructing Gulf LNG is years away, construction of more trains at PNG LNG could begin in months, perhaps weeks.