Timing

[Getitrt2]

CAC, I do not know what you mean by "starting over to some degree", but they definitely are not starting over from scratch. PacLNG is out as called for by the agreement, they have a third partner welcomed by both IOC and Total as intended by Total, and I think some fairly straight-forward modifications to the original SPA can establish basically the agreement they intended to move forward with. I'm not sure how much I care what OSH "thinks", and they cannot control the deal between IOC and Total any more than IOC could control the deal between OSH and PacLNG. Furthermore, moving forward in that manner is what both IOC and Total have since stated as their intent. It probably will now take some time beyond March 31 to close, but I doubt it will be anything like a couple of months, and they were not planning to start drilling in Antelope with the rig from OSH until second quarter anyway. Once they do start that, they plan to move ahead aggressively with both the appraisal wells and the Antelope Deep exploration well.

+++++++++++

Getit --

Yes, that could turn out to be exactly how it goes.  But "assuming" that anything will definitely happen just because IOC management said that's the direction they were planning to head would not be recognizing the history of this company over the last five years.  

And the reason I care what OSH says/thinks is because I think they want the E/A gas for their existing plant.  Is it possible that they raised 900M just to become a minority partner in a second plant...well, I guess so.  But economies of scale make me think that wouldn't be their ideal scenario.  

Will OSH be able to somehow get the gas to a third/fourth train instead of to the new TOT plant...I don't know.  Would it possibly involve a deal that benefits IOC if they did...maybe, maybe not.  But I'm guessing that OSH thinks they have a chance to accomplish exactly that if they spent almost a billion dollars.   

CAC, I am NOT "assuming that anything will definitely happen just because IOC management said that 's the direction they were planning to head".  That is a gross misstatement of what I said.  It is, however, a strong indication of where they are headed and what is most likely.  Also, in case you have not figured it out yet, this is NOT the same company and management we have been following the last five years, which I think is very important.  Why don't you address directly the facts and logic I cited.

OSH's investment in PRL 15 is a smart move for them for their future growth and profits in either scenario, and they specifically stated that in their news release, which I would suggest everyone read thoroughly.    Also, they will be a "minority partner" in either or both scenarios, and they do not control either.  Yes, that was exactly their intent.  You say, "Would it possibly involve a deal that benefits IOC if they did...maybe, maybe not."  Are you serious?  Any deal involving IOC's PRL 15 ownership, will benefit IOC;  it's just a matter of how much.  I feel sure the greater benefit for IOC and PNG would be a somewhat modified SPA with Total with IOC continuing to have a material interest (25-30%) in PRL 15 and the LNG project; and apparently Hession, who I consider more competent on it than any of us, feels the same, which means something to me if not to you.

If after OSH closes its deal, Exxon makes a bid to buy out IOC and succeeds, Exxon will be in control.  Otherwise, I think IOC and Total are mostly in control of this, and they seem to be in sync.