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CAC, I am NOT "assuming that anything will definitely happen just because IOC management said that 's the direction they were planning to head". That is a gross misstatement of what I said.
What I have heard you say (repeatedly) is that people who consider the new development with OSH, and then question whether the deal will still go through with TOT are misguided or wrong in doing so. Nobody knows at this point...including you. I think it's a fair question to analyze.
Also, in case you have not figured it out yet, this is NOT the same company and management we have been following the last five years, which I think is very important.
Wow. Okay. How different is it so far when it comes to bottom line results? The new company told us we were likely to have a deal with XOM...but that did not happen. The new company told us they were finalizing a "transformative deal" and then the execution of that announcement contributed to a massive pps collapse. The new company told us they would have the IPI bought out a month or two ago...again, they did not accomplish it. But you unflinchingly believe the deal with TOT will go through (after the curveball from OSH) because IOC said they would still like it to? This management's track record (delivery-wise) is not all that different...at least so far.
OSH's investment in PRL 15 is a smart move for them for their future growth and profits in either scenario, and they specifically stated that in their news release, which I would suggest everyone read thoroughly. Also, they will be a "minority partner" in either or both scenarios, and they do not control either. Yes, that was exactly their intent.
Reasonable minds can differ on this I suppose. I think the big money is in ownership of a plant. That's what the super majors want, that's what IOC is trying to get, and it is what OSH already has. A minority partner in that regard is gold. To rationalize that they don't really want that gas going to the plant they have an ownership interest in seems dubious to me.
I feel sure the greater benefit for IOC and PNG would be a somewhat modified SPA with Total with IOC continuing to have a material interest (25-30%) in PRL 15 and the LNG project; and apparently Hession, who I consider more competent on it than any of us, feels the same, which means something to me if not to you.
Of course it is relevant to me to consider what powerful and influential people like Hession want, but that doesn't mean he will get it (or that he won't be pusuaded to change his mind). There are powerful influential people that may want something different. Being adamantly dismissive of that possibility may not be wise.