(03-13-2014, 01:10 AM)mikesioc Wrote: Anyone ever heard of opportunity costs? There have been countless other places to park cash that provide significantly greater returns than IOC with far less risk. That trend became significantly more costly after IOC transformed itself and promptly lost 50% of its market cap. IOC is going to have to accept whatever PNG, Total, Exxon, and Oil Search decide they want done. While intriguing this story has become a broken record and IOC is now a pawn. Let's just hope those truly in control simply make the logical decision and give IOC their parting gift, $126. Everyone happy now? I know that can be significantly greater by 2020 just by owning Oil Search. IOC could be discarded costume jewelry by then.
Mike, I would say your apparent assumption that PNG, Total, Exxon, and OSH would be completely in agreement on anything related to all this is very unlikely, "ridiculous" even comes to mind. I see Total and Exxon as still competitors in this situation, as they have been up to now, which I don't think leaves IOC, with current ownership in PRL 15 of about 75% and a mutually indicated pending SPA and partnership with Total, as just a "pawn". At this point, OSH has the minority ownership they wanted, with a premium payment and vote of confidence in IOC's PRL 15, and little more; and Exxon has nothing unless they are willing to put up a much better bid or pay enough to buy the Company. Exxon also knows they can probably buy other gas later from IOC for expansion, and may opt for that if needed. Perhaps it should also be noted that OSH is pursuing minority ownership in IOC's PRL 39 and PPLs, which would be the sources of that gas.
I certainly can't argue with your comments on past investment returns on IOC, unless someone could have successfully traded it, which I think would have been very difficult unless you were a manipulator in the know. Like you, I am also extremely unhappy and frustrated about that. However, I agree with ltinvest on the future outlook, whether in the form of a buyout at your $126 or more, or otherwise. Apparently, you agree with that regarding a potential buyout, but I also agree with ltinvest on IOC in the future otherwise, given PRL 15 and LNG ownership, and enormous prospects for future discoveries, which IOC will have a much bigger interest in than OSH, assuming OSH can even finance buying into them with LNG cash flow or debt or further stock dilution.