'mikesioc' pid='39067' datel Wrote:I have not been sitting on my hands these last 5 years and wouldn't still be here if I didn't believe IOC had the potential to far exceed other opportunities in the near term. The market is offering us Philadelphia pawn shop pricing right now but waiting a bit longer for results of the current negotiations seems prudent. After that a reassessment is certainly in order. When all is said and done it will be very interesting to track OSH v IOC by 2020. How much interest in how many trains for each by then? Assuming OSH will own 22.85% of PRL 15 and maintains its options for confirmed discoveries the current perception has OSH well ahead. If Hession can bring RDS or Woodside into the current bidding IOC can exert some leverage and make up some ground. Further if drilling results are successful. That being said based on recent twists PNG seems likely to guide this into the outcome that best serves PNG which are more aligned with OSH/Exxon and may conflict with IOC's best interests. We'll know soon. Best of luck to all whatever your expectations may be.
After the PNG option exercise (almost certain), OSH will actually own 17.7% net, and IOC plans to and probably will own 25 to 30% net. Also, OSH has NO "options for confirmed discoveries". They have the exclusive rights to negotiate for six months with PacLNG for interests ranging from 11.04% to 13.43%, which I think are probably gross interests, and there are no prices agreed upon, which will be higher with any "confirmed discoveries". I also feel sure PNG is not going to borrow any more to buy OSH shares to finance any such purchases. IOC already owns interests in all those properties ranging from 50.5% to 60.5%, and I think those are probably net after PNG's 22.5%, including, I believe, PRL 39 (Triceratops), a confirmed discovery. In the meantime IOC is now investing hundreds of millions of dollars in exploration and appraisal in all those to increase their values. How does all that favor OSH over IOC?
As I have explained in more detail elsewhere, I believe what is in PNG's best interests is a separate LNG project by Total for PRL 15 with future expansion of both, and I do not believe PNG will interfere with commercial agreements between IOC and Total. Therefore, I guess we disagree on that also. Best of luck to you as well.