(03-18-2014, 03:24 AM)Libtardius Maximus Wrote:
(03-18-2014, 02:48 AM)Getitrt2 Wrote: I can't believe this debate over Exxon vs Total with respect to PRL 15 keeps popping up, even in a thread for an RJ report predicting a close with Total. As far as I am concerned, we have an extremely intelligent, experienced, and competent CEO who has thoroughly evaluated the best proposals of Exxon and Total and decisively selected Total's, in conjunction with on-going consultations with the government, and that is good enough for me. Furthermore, however, what I have learned and evaluated in conjunction with that from all sources pro and con seem to back that up. Without some significant change from Total and/or Exxon, I don't see any reason why there is any debate left on PRL 15 at this time. On one point, as I have discussed elsewhere people keep referring to "sooner cash flow from a PNG LNG third train", even though MS puts that at four years. They should be saying "operating cash flow", because much sooner cash flow comes from the fixed and resource payments from Total, which are apparently greater than Exxon was willing to offer. I might add that, as I have also discussed elsewhere, according to the Feb 27 MS report on OSH, Exxon and OSH are currently focused on developing and evaluating Hides, P'nyang, etc. as sources for PNG LNG train 3. If there is any worthwhile debate left, barring circumstance changes as indicated above, I think it arises from other gas from Triceratops, new discoveries (likely, imo), or perhaps certification of much larger amounts than expected in PRL 15; and I think that debate would be on expansion of either or both when of the two LNG facilities, a debate I would love to enjoy. The first two of those sources have also been cited by our CEO as possible sources for PNG LNG.
Getirt,
While you have made your point over and over why is it so hard for you to come to the reality that there really is no deal with TOT at this time. The promise is there but a signed deal is not. One of the stipulations of the IOC/TOT SPA was for IOC to buy out IPI. Did that happen? Nope. So as I see it and others here as well, we have no agreement at this time. Some here are trying to float XOM entering the picture ( Include me in this group) and a scant few are pulling for the wild card to emerge ( I favor this one). There has never been a better time to own IOC than right now. No IPI, Duma, PNG government in support, drilling, low cost gas, terms of winning bid known. We have been told for years that there is huge interest in IOC finds and licenses. I for one favor letting the competition play out in full view of shareholders. Remember, Hession stated on his 40% off cc in December that it was competitive to the very end. This may strike you as strange, but this is not over. Not until a deal is signed and money changes hands. If someone else wants EA more than TOT than I support that. Next up for IOC shareholders is a cc which is overdue. I hope there is some good news involving more than what we already know.
"... this is not over"- agree with this Lib for several reasons. One is OSH's own comments immediately after the deal was announced. Per PNG Industry News:
"“Oil Search notes the announcements made by InterOil Corporation and Total SA with respect to the acquisition by Total SA of a strategic interest in petroleum retention licence 15 in Papua New Guinea,” Oil Search managing director Peter Botten said. “As previously articulated to the market, Oil Search has been in discussions with a number of key stakeholders associated with the PRL 15 sale process. “To ensure that the market is fully informed, Oil Search confirms that these discussions are ongoing. “However, the nature of Oil Search’s potential participation in any transaction is uncertain and there is no guarantee that any agreement will be reached. “Oil Search shareholders will be kept informed of any further material developments if and when they occur.”
In other words, OSH duly noted that IOC and Total had made a contingent deal, but they basically stated that they were not recognizing it as a conclusion of negotiations. Now we know that "negotiations" were truly ongoing and in the end they surprised both IOC and OSH. But it was no surprise to O'Neill who stated last week that he understood that OSH was negotiating with Total and IOC while at the same time the PNG government was lining up financing to buy back the OSH shares from IPIC. The very interesting thing is that nowhere in December anywhere near the Dec 5-6 dates where the IOC/Total deal was "announced" did O'Neill make a mention of the IOC/Total deal. Does this mean he was expecting a different deal to be announced at the big party? It's interesting that he specifically mentioned the Stanley project and Horizon and Osaka as developers in February and how good that was going to be for PNG. He finally mentions IOC and Total last week when he is explaining the importance of the government buying the OSH shares. And then all he mentions is that he knew OSH was talking with Total and IOC about the buying of the Pac LNG interests. If he was so happy about IOC and Total and was expecting that deal to be announced, why has he not said much at all about it since the announcement? Duma has mentioned the deal and that "the government" expects IOC and Total to fast-track the project, but little or nothing from O'Neill himself. Except that he sacked Duma and Polye.
The story is far from over as far as who ends up being the LNG operator for PRL 15; Total is anything but a lock right now IMHO.