05-02-2014, 12:26 PM
An interesting question is how the Ukraine crisis has, and can affect the Polish economy, as they have been quite vocal in their support of the Maidan revolution. Opinions differ.
“EVERYTHING depends on what happens in the east,” said Janusz Piechocinski, Poland’s economy minister, in a recent interview on Polish radio. Around one-fifth of Poland’s exports go to neighbouring Ukraine and Russia, thousands of jobs depend on trade with the east and Poland still gets a lot of its oil and some of its gas from Russia. No wonder then that, with an explosive stand-off between Russia and Ukraine, Mr Piechocinski is no longer certain that Poland’s GDP will increase by up to 3.2% and its exports by 6% this year, as he forecast only a few weeks ago.
Poland’s economy: Can do even better | The Economist
Poland exports a diverse assortment of goods to Ukraine - including everything from apparel to home appliances and automotive parts. Although statistics from Poland's Economy Ministry indicated a decline in Polish exports to Ukraine for the first two months of 2014, Ukraine is still Poland's eighth-largest export market and goods sent there make up 1 percent of Polish GDP. "Even in the worst-case scenario," Adamiak said, "it's highly unlikely that problems in Ukraine will cost Poland's economy more than 0.5 percent of GDP." That "worst-case scenario" involves Ukraine defaulting on its debts, which is less likely as initial loan guarantees and other offers of aid have been made by the United States and European Union. Specific Polish companies, however, are likely feeling the pinch: The LPP apparel company sells 4 percent of its goods to Ukraine customers. Sniezka, a Polish paint manufacturer, considers the country its most important market. Rovese, which makes ceramics and bathroom furniture, has facilities in both Ukraine in Russia. "This is probably the single most exposed company, because it has one-third of sales in Russia and Ukraine and also has significant facilities there," Adamiak said.
Polish economy can fend off Russian storm | Europe | DW.DE | 06.03.2014
It's Russia, however, where the pinch could turn to pain. In that case, it wouldn't be exports lost to a country in default but rather a single and very vital Russian import. "The Polish economy is highly dependent on hydrocarbons from Russia," Adiamak said. That is where Poland's outspoken support of Maidan protestors in Kyiv and its disapproval of hostile takeovers by Russian-speaking troops of government facilities in Crimea could ultimately prove harmful. "Poland has been quite active in this conflict - it's a leader in supporting Ukraine - so if Russia were to impose sanctions, it would choose those countries that are most active on the European side," Adiamak said. Eight percent of Poland's gas, the strategist added, is imported from Russia; when it comes to oil, the number is higher.
Polish economy can fend off Russian storm | Europe | DW.DE | 06.03.2014