'Putncalls' pid='43499' datel Wrote:But Pet? It's the LAST three out of the last seven wells. That curve matches that of the "ultimate transistor" which switches from off to on as the voltage is raised at the controlling metal contact.
Yes, Puts, it looks like there has been a step change since the first four wells (dry) were drilled. We might have gotten lucky with Elk and Antelope. But now IOC's understanding of the geology has matured, there has been a step change in the level of research for selecting targets (look at all that seismic!), and drilling is now done with rigs which are up to the job.
Hession was prudently attempting to lower expectations for the exploration wells at the CC. Underpromise and Overdeliver is a good policy for a CEO.
But our board's own resident petroleum engineer estimates a probability of success in the 80 to 90 percent range for each of the three exploration wells. What is the "reality'?
My own expectations have not been lowered. :-) The picture I see and am betting on is that the conditions of Source, Reservoir Rock, and Trap are satisfied for most of the apparent reefal prospects on IOC's licenses. My expectation is that the three exploration wells being drilled will be commercial.
We will soon see. These are exciting times.