'Putncalls' pid='44359' datel Wrote:I don't know about slow......... What happens if it appears that the 2 billion from Total is a "slam dunk"? What if any of the exploration wells are a success? What happens if IOC is bought out? What happens if FID on LNG with Total appears eminent? Sub 1$? last time a looked Total already agreed to pay 1.30$ for anything over 7Ts in all?
Puts, you can't cherry pick the top of the barrel. They got less than $1 for the whole shabang. Period. MH knew he wouldn't get $1 per mcf for the gas. I haven't done the math but if we get to 15Ts maybe all in you end up over $1 but it was well below expectations and he knew it would be. That's my only point. Lots could go right and I hope it does. Not sure what the inflection point will be for the "stock" versus the company. I still find this one of the most intriguing companies/opprotunities around but there is a big discount on it. How/when it gets lifted I'm not sure. Its still not viewed favourably by many institutional investors. If I had made one bet this year it would have been more sell side coverage and perhaps from CSFB. They will eventually hop on board as the story matures. LIghteneing could strike on the E&P side but the days of the Supers "having" to buy this have past. With all the logic that XOM "had" to buy them, it never happened, and I was an XOM scenario guy. When faced with these contradictions you,I,we have to go back and check your,mine,our assumptions.